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An application of MDLPF models for solar radiation forecasting

Author(s): Emre Akarslan, Fatih Onur Hocaoglu*
Afyon Kocatepe University, ANS Campus Engineering Faculty 03200 Afyonkarahisar, Turkey
Solar and Wind Energy Applications and Research Center, ANS Campus 03200 Afyonkarahisar, Turkey
International Journal of Smart Grid and Clean Energy, vol. 4, no. 4, October 2015: pp. 299-304
ISSN: 2315-4462 (Print)
ISSN: 2373-3594 (Online)
Digital Object Identifier: 10.12720/sgce.4.4.299-304

Abstract: Electricity generation from renewable resources is a hot topic due to increasing environmental awareness of people and energy needs. Solar energy is one of the most important clean energy sources. Forecasting of solar radiation is one of the important stages in sizing and managing a PV power plant. Moreover since the smart grid applications are started, accurate forecasting of the energy output of PV system (hence the solar radiation) became a hot topic. In literature there are a huge number of studies tries to find more accurate forecasting models. Among them in this study Multi-Dimensional Linear Prediction Filter Models (MDLPF Models) are studied. To test the performance of MDLPF models, hourly solar radiation data of two different regions (Ankara and Çanakkale) are employed. In forecasting five different MDLPF Models are built. The accuracies of the forecasting results are compared and discussed.

Keywords: Solar radiation, forecasting, MDLPF, linear prediction

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